Nate's latest change is way too optimistic. (hooray I am not speaking french anymore...).
Was that French-speaking interlude another self-inflicted penance? ;)
Il a été apporté dessus par quelqu'un écriture dans l'Espagnol
(apologies if it is too literal, my knowledge of French grammar when out the window years ago).
Elitist!!! ;-)
But if the polls shift just a few degrees in a few of the jump-ball states, it quickly brings that 64% back down to 50%. He's handicapping the same way you do in sports. For this snapshot, assuming polling stays the same (which I'm sure he knows it won't) those are the odds based on the most current numbers.
Anyway, it looks pretty realistic to me. Some people are much more optimistic about, say, Texas, Montana, S. Carolina. It's really too early to tell, earlier polls when Hillary was in the mix really aren't reliable.
